Serie A · Matchweek 25
Lazio
LAZ
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lazio41%
Draw29%
Napoli29%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.09
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession57%
49%Territory37%
20%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.10
3.7%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lazio, 4 for Napoli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Napoli
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 99 matches, not the full season.