Serie A · Matchweek 25
Atalanta
ATA
Monza
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta60%
Draw21%
Monza19%
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.21
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession43%
39%Territory37%
15%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.16
4.8%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Atalanta, 4 for Monza.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.