Serie A · Matchweek 24
Monza
MON
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monza41%
Draw27%
Lecce32%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.33
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession42%
37%Territory41%
22%From set plays31%
0.16Chance quality0.10
4.7%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Monza, 4 for Lecce.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.