Serie A · Matchweek 24
Inter
INT
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Inter62%
Draw21%
Milan18%
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.13
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
63%Possession56%
56%Territory31%
24%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.18
3.9%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Inter, 4 for Milan.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.