Serie A · Matchweek 24
Genoa
GEN
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa30%
Draw27%
Atalanta42%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.48
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession44%
34%Territory39%
14%From set plays15%
0.07Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Genoa, 4 for Atalanta.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.