Serie A · Matchweek 24
Frosinone
FRO
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Frosinone52%
Draw23%
Fiorentina25%
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.34
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession45%
48%Territory40%
16%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.07
6.2%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Frosinone, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.