Serie A · Matchweek 23
Atalanta
ATA
Lazio
LAZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta36%
Draw27%
Lazio37%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.41
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lazio will have the ball; Atalanta will not mind.
47%Possession61%
40%Territory49%
11%From set plays20%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.7%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atalanta, 4 for Lazio. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 99 matches, not the full season.