Serie A · Matchweek 22
Napoli
NAP
Inter
INT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli27%
Draw26%
Inter46%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.62
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession63%
37%Territory56%
28%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Napoli, 4 for Inter.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Napoli
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.