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Serie A · Matchweek 22

Genoa

GEN

Lecce

LEC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Genoa41%
Draw30%
Lecce29%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.05

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–012.7%
  • 0–010.8%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

41%Possession42%
34%Territory41%
14%From set plays31%
0.07Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Genoa, 4 for Lecce.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.