Serie A · Matchweek 22
Genoa
GEN
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa41%
Draw30%
Lecce29%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.05
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession42%
34%Territory41%
14%From set plays31%
0.07Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Genoa, 4 for Lecce.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.