Serie A · Matchweek 22
Cagliari
CAG
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari49%
Draw28%
Parma23%
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.92
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession42%
32%Territory36%
19%From set plays34%
0.13Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cagliari, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Parma
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.