Serie A · Matchweek 22
Atalanta
ATA
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta57%
Draw22%
Fiorentina21%
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.24
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession45%
39%Territory40%
15%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.07
4.8%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Atalanta, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.