Serie A · Matchweek 21
Lecce
LEC
Torino
TOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce37%
Draw28%
Torino35%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.32
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession44%
41%Territory31%
31%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lecce, 5 for Torino.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.