Serie A · Matchweek 21
Genoa
GEN
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa45%
Draw31%
Parma24%
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.84
Over 2.5
34%
Both to score
41%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.8%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Parma get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession42%
34%Territory36%
14%From set plays34%
0.07Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Genoa, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Parma
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.