Serie A · Matchweek 21
Frosinone
FRO
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Frosinone32%
Draw24%
Milan43%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.81
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession56%
48%Territory31%
16%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.18
6.2%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Frosinone, 4 for Milan.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.