Serie A · Matchweek 21
Fiorentina
FIO
Sassuolo
SAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina58%
Draw22%
Sassuolo20%
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.20
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession51%
39%Territory37%
20%From set plays17%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.2%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Fiorentina, 4 for Sassuolo.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 34 of 99 matches, not the full season.