Serie A · Matchweek 20
Venezia
VEN
Frosinone
FRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Venezia31%
Draw25%
Frosinone44%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.68
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.3%
- 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession51%
43%Territory48%
14%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Venezia, 4 for Frosinone.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.