Serie A · Matchweek 20
Sassuolo
SAS
Monza
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo40%
Draw25%
Monza35%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.52
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession43%
37%Territory37%
17%From set plays22%
0.09Chance quality0.16
4.0%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 4 for Monza. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.