Serie A · Matchweek 20
Napoli
NAP
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli48%
Draw25%
Fiorentina27%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.24
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession45%
49%Territory49%
22%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Napoli, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.