Serie A · Matchweek 20
Lecce
LEC
Udinese
UDI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce31%
Draw27%
Udinese41%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.46
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession41%
34%Territory35%
61%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.11
5.6%Directness8.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lecce, 3 for Udinese. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.