Serie A · Matchweek 19
Udinese
UDI
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Udinese28%
Draw26%
Napoli46%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.63
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession46%
35%Territory49%
18%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.12
8.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Udinese, 3 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.