Serie A · Matchweek 19
Monza
MON
Frosinone
FRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monza33%
Draw25%
Frosinone42%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.74
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession51%
37%Territory48%
22%From set plays16%
0.16Chance quality0.10
4.7%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Monza, 4 for Frosinone.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.