Serie A · Matchweek 19
Fiorentina
FIO
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina64%
Draw21%
Lecce15%
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.92
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.1%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession44%
49%Territory34%
11%From set plays61%
0.13Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fiorentina, 3 for Lecce. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.