Serie A · Matchweek 19
Fiorentina
FIO
Lecce
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina44%
Draw27%
Lecce29%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.24
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession42%
40%Territory41%
24%From set plays31%
0.07Chance quality0.10
4.6%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fiorentina, 4 for Lecce. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.