Serie A · Matchweek 19
Cagliari
CAG
Sassuolo
SAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari53%
Draw24%
Sassuolo23%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.18
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession51%
32%Territory37%
19%From set plays17%
0.13Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cagliari, 4 for Sassuolo.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.