Serie A · Matchweek 19
Roma
ROM
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Roma55%
Draw24%
Milan20%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.02
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession58%
48%Territory36%
8%From set plays22%
0.14Chance quality0.08
4.5%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Roma, 3 for Milan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.