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Serie A · Matchweek 19

Roma

ROM

Milan

MIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Roma48%
Draw24%
Milan28%

Expected goals

1.84 – 1.40

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–07.8%
  • 1–26.8%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

61%Possession56%
44%Territory31%
20%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.18
3.6%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Roma, 4 for Milan.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.