Serie A · Matchweek 19
Roma
ROM
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Roma48%
Draw24%
Milan28%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.40
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession56%
44%Territory31%
20%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.18
3.6%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Roma, 4 for Milan.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.