Serie A · Matchweek 18
Venezia
VEN
Roma
ROM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Venezia13%
Draw19%
Roma68%
Expected goals
0.91 – 2.22
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–210.9%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–37.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession59%
40%Territory48%
18%From set plays8%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Venezia, 3 for Roma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.