Serie A · Matchweek 18
Sassuolo
SAS
Udinese
UDI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo48%
Draw25%
Udinese27%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.28
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession41%
40%Territory35%
13%From set plays18%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.0%Directness8.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 3 for Udinese. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.