Serie A · Matchweek 18
Napoli
NAP
Cagliari
CAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli57%
Draw24%
Cagliari18%
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.94
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession39%
49%Territory31%
22%From set plays29%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Napoli, 3 for Cagliari. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.