Serie A · Matchweek 18
Lecce
LEC
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce46%
Draw29%
Parma25%
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.95
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession42%
41%Territory36%
31%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.8%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lecce, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Parma
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.