Serie A · Matchweek 18
Lecce
LEC
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce39%
Draw31%
Parma30%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.04
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession41%
34%Territory27%
61%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lecce, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.