Serie A · Matchweek 18
Lazio
LAZ
Inter
INT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lazio28%
Draw27%
Inter45%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.53
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession63%
49%Territory56%
20%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.13
3.7%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lazio, 4 for Inter.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 99 matches, not the full season.