Serie A · Matchweek 18
Genoa
GEN
Monza
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa44%
Draw28%
Monza28%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.12
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.9%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession43%
34%Territory37%
14%From set plays22%
0.07Chance quality0.16
6.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Genoa, 4 for Monza.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 34 of 98 matches, not the full season.