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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Serie A · Matchweek 18

Frosinone

FRO

Bologna

BOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Frosinone44%
Draw25%
Bologna32%

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.46

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 1–07.6%
  • 1–27.4%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bologna get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

51%Possession43%
48%Territory39%
16%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.17
6.2%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Frosinone, 4 for Bologna.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.