Serie A · Matchweek 18
Milan
MIL
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan63%
Draw21%
Fiorentina17%
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.07
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Milan will have the ball; Fiorentina will not mind.
56%Possession45%
31%Territory40%
24%From set plays24%
0.18Chance quality0.07
4.3%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Milan, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.