Serie A · Matchweek 17
Udinese
UDI
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Udinese32%
Draw27%
Atalanta41%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.50
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession46%
35%Territory42%
18%From set plays9%
0.11Chance quality0.07
8.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Udinese, 3 for Atalanta. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atalanta
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.