Serie A · Matchweek 17
Torino
TOR
Venezia
VEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Torino50%
Draw25%
Venezia25%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.23
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession55%
36%Territory40%
12%From set plays18%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Torino, 3 for Venezia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.