Serie A · Matchweek 17
Parma
PAR
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Parma20%
Draw27%
Napoli53%
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.57
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession46%
27%Territory49%
27%From set plays22%
0.09Chance quality0.12
6.1%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Parma, 3 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.