Serie A · Matchweek 17
Monza
MON
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monza29%
Draw26%
Milan45%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.61
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession58%
45%Territory36%
16%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.3%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monza, 3 for Milan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.