Serie A · Matchweek 17
Cagliari
CAG
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari42%
Draw28%
Genoa30%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.15
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession45%
31%Territory31%
29%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.08
5.2%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cagliari, 3 for Genoa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.