Serie A · Matchweek 17
Cagliari
CAG
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari42%
Draw29%
Genoa28%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.05
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession41%
32%Territory34%
19%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.07
6.2%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cagliari, 4 for Genoa.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.