Serie A · Matchweek 16
Venezia
VEN
Monza
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Venezia34%
Draw26%
Monza40%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.58
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession55%
40%Territory45%
18%From set plays16%
0.09Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Venezia, 3 for Monza. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.