Serie A · Matchweek 16
Torino
TOR
Cagliari
CAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Torino44%
Draw27%
Cagliari29%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.21
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession44%
31%Territory32%
25%From set plays19%
0.12Chance quality0.13
5.1%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Torino, 4 for Cagliari.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.