Serie A · Matchweek 16
Sassuolo
SAS
Parma
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo55%
Draw25%
Parma19%
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.92
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.1%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession41%
40%Territory27%
13%From set plays27%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.0%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 3 for Parma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.