Serie A · Matchweek 16
Genoa
GEN
Udinese
UDI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genoa41%
Draw27%
Udinese32%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.30
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession41%
31%Territory35%
23%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.2%Directness8.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Genoa, 3 for Udinese. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.