Serie A · Matchweek 16
Fiorentina
FIO
Bologna
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fiorentina35%
Draw27%
Bologna38%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.46
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession43%
40%Territory39%
24%From set plays34%
0.07Chance quality0.17
4.6%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fiorentina, 4 for Bologna. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 34 of 98 matches, not the full season.