Serie A · Matchweek 16
Atalanta
ATA
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta37%
Draw28%
Napoli35%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.31
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession46%
42%Territory49%
9%From set plays22%
0.07Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atalanta, 3 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atalanta
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.