Serie A · Matchweek 15
Parma
PAR
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Parma24%
Draw27%
Fiorentina50%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.57
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.8%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Parma get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession45%
27%Territory49%
27%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.13
6.1%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Parma, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.