Serie A · Matchweek 15
Parma
PAR
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Parma34%
Draw30%
Fiorentina37%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.23
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession45%
36%Territory40%
34%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.07
6.5%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Parma, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
This competition has no player data in the current snapshot, so there is nobody to name. Better than naming somebody anyway.