Serie A · Matchweek 15
Napoli
NAP
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli43%
Draw27%
Milan30%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.27
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
37%Territory31%
28%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.18
5.0%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Napoli, 4 for Milan.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Napoli
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.