Serie A · Matchweek 15
Napoli
NAP
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Napoli42%
Draw27%
Milan31%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.25
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Milan will have the ball; Napoli will not mind.
46%Possession58%
49%Territory36%
22%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Napoli, 3 for Milan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.