Serie A · Matchweek 15
Lecce
LEC
Sassuolo
SAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce48%
Draw25%
Sassuolo27%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.25
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession48%
41%Territory37%
31%From set plays17%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.8%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lecce, 3 for Sassuolo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.