Serie A · Matchweek 15
Lecce
LEC
Sassuolo
SAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lecce27%
Draw27%
Sassuolo46%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.55
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lecce get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession42%
34%Territory40%
61%From set plays13%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lecce, 3 for Sassuolo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.