Serie A · Matchweek 15
Lazio
LAZ
Roma
ROM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lazio40%
Draw28%
Roma32%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.28
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession61%
49%Territory44%
20%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.13
3.7%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lazio, 4 for Roma.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.