Serie A · Matchweek 15
Juventus
JUV
Monza
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Juventus67%
Draw20%
Monza13%
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.8%
- 2–011.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession55%
58%Territory45%
30%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.12
3.0%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Juventus, 3 for Monza. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Juventus
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.