Serie A · Matchweek 15
Cagliari
CAG
Venezia
VEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cagliari49%
Draw26%
Venezia25%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.10
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession43%
32%Territory43%
19%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cagliari, 5 for Venezia.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.