Serie A · Matchweek 15
Atalanta
ATA
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta53%
Draw25%
Genoa21%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.01
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession45%
42%Territory31%
9%From set plays23%
0.07Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atalanta, 3 for Genoa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atalanta
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.