Serie A · Matchweek 15
Atalanta
ATA
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta54%
Draw25%
Genoa21%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.04
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.3%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession41%
39%Territory34%
15%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.07
4.8%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Atalanta, 4 for Genoa.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.